What is the best platform for creating my own prediction market for a question my friends and I have?

If this is just for you and your friends, I’d pick Manifold Markets.

Why Manifold is probably the best fit

• You can create your own question — essentially, “Will X happen by Y date?” and let your friends trade on it.
• Play money makes it easy. Everyone gets Mana (Ṁ), so you don't have to deal with payments, deposits, or financial infrastructure.
• It actually feels like a prediction market rather than a poll: the price moves as people buy/sell, giving you an implied probability.
• It's designed around social, user-created markets, including markets about personal goals and questions among friends.
• You can make something like: “Will our group collectively finish 10 rounds of golf before October 1?” or “Who will win our fantasy football league?”

The alternatives

Metaculus is particularly good if you care more about forecasting accuracy than betting/trading. It asks people to submit probabilities directly rather than trading shares, and its private-instance offering is aimed more at organizations.

One important distinction

If by “my own prediction market” you mean “I want to make a private market where my 10 friends can put actual dollars into a pool and the winner gets the money,” that's a different problem. Manifold's standard system is play-money, and real-money prediction markets bring substantially more legal/payment complexity.

If you tell me the actual question you and your friends want to bet on, I can recommend the best platform/setup and even suggest how to phrase the market so there's no argument about how it gets resolved.

For a casual prediction market with a group of friends, Manifold Markets is hands down the best platform to use.

Unlike real-money heavyweights like Polymarket or Kalshi (which are built for public, macro-level financial speculation and regulated events), Manifold is designed as a social prediction game utilizing play-money (Mana), making it frictionless, legal, and tailored for custom questions.

Why Manifold Markets is Ideal for Friend Groups

• Custom Market Creation: You can type out literally any question you want—from "Will Dave show up to brunch on time next Saturday?" to "Will our fantasy football team make the playoffs?"—set your own closing date, and define the resolution criteria.
• Private Groups: Manifold features Private Groups , allowing you to set up a dedicated space just for your friend group. Markets created inside these groups are only visible, editable, and tradeable by the people you invite.
• Play Money System: It uses Mana (M cap M𝑀), meaning nobody has to link a crypto wallet, deal with USDC, or risk actual cash. You start with a balance and trade against each other to see who has the best forecasting accuracy.
• Flexible Market Types: You can make binary (Yes/No) questions, multiple-choice questions, or even numeric range predictions.

How to Set It Up in 3 Steps

If you want, tell me:

• What is the specific question you and your friends want to bet on?
• Do you want it to be completely private , or are you okay with the public seeing and playing along?

I can help you phrase the resolution criteria so there's no friendly disputes later on!

For a prediction market just for you and your friends, I’d pick Manifold Markets by a pretty wide margin.

Why Manifold is the best fit

• You can create your own questions. You aren't limited to the markets the platform itself offers.
• It's play-money, so you don't have to deal with deposits, withdrawals, or the regulatory issues that come with real-money prediction markets.
• It's social. The whole product is designed around people creating markets and trading against their friends/community.
• Private groups are available, allowing invited friends to participate in private markets.
• You get an actual market price/probability rather than simply having everyone submit a prediction. So if your question is "Will X happen by December 31?", your friends can buy/sell YES and NO and watch the probability move.

What I'd use for a friends' market

Say your group wants to predict:

"Will John finish the marathon under 4 hours?" I'd create a Manifold YES/NO market, give everyone the play currency, and let everyone trade.

You could make a whole friends prediction league:

Then resolve each market when the outcome is known and keep a leaderboard.

Other options

Metaculus is excellent if you care more about forecasting accuracy than the market/trading experience. It asks people to submit probabilities and scores their forecasts, but Metaculus explicitly distinguishes itself from prediction markets and currently doesn't allow new private questions.

Kalshi is the option I'd consider if you specifically want real-money event contracts, but that's overkill for a friends' game and introduces financial/regulatory considerations. The prediction-market landscape is also evolving quickly in 2026.

Polymarket is great for observing/trading existing markets, but it's not what I'd choose for a private friends-only prediction game.

My recommendation

Manifold + a private group + play money is almost exactly what you're describing.

If you tell me what the question is (and roughly how many friends will participate), I can also suggest the best way to structure the market—e.g. YES/NO vs. multiple choice, starting odds, resolution rules, and scoring/leaderboard.

For a casual prediction market with friends using play-money (or custom points), the absolute best and easiest option is Manifold.

The top platforms depend on whether you want to use play money, real money, or self-host your own infrastructure:

• Manifold (Best Overall / Play-Money): It is specifically designed for custom user-created markets. You can create Private Groups , invite your friends via a link, give everyone a starting balance of play-money (Mana), and make custom binary, multiple-choice, or numeric markets on any inside joke or specific question you have. It features leaderboards, comments, and automated probabilities out of the box.
• SocialPredict (Best for Self-Hosting): If you are technically inclined and want a completely private, open-source setup that runs on a local Docker stack where you fully control the database, rules, and currency, you can deploy SocialPredict.
• Crypto Testnets / Base / Polymarket-style clones (Best for Web3/Crypto enthusiasts): If your friend group wants to mess around with smart contracts or crypto testnet tokens (like on Base or Etherlink), you can spin up a quick AMM prediction market contract without writing custom code, though it's overkill for a simple casual question.
• Public Real-Money Platforms (Kalshi / Polymarket): If you are looking to bet actual money, platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket are strictly regulated or public-facing. They do not support custom "private rooms" for friend groups; any market you propose has to go through public curation or approval.

If you'd like, let me know:

• Are you looking to use play-money/points or real money?
• Do you want it accessible via a web app/phone , or are you looking to code/host it yourself?

I can help you set up the exact workflow or point you toward the right feature on those platforms.

If you want to set up a custom prediction market for just you and your friends, the right platform depends entirely on whether you want to use fake/play money (hassle-free, legal everywhere, great for bragging rights) or real money (requires navigating legal/financial setup).

The top options tailored for a private group or custom question include:

1. Manifold Markets — Best overall for custom, play-money markets.
   • How it works: You can sign up and create a completely free, custom binary or multiple-choice market in less than two minutes. It runs on "Mana" (virtual play money).
   • Why it fits friends: You can set your markets to Private so only invited friends can see, trade, and comment on them. It tracks leaderboards, has built-in chat for trash talk, and completely avoids any legal or financial headaches.
2. Metaculus — Best if your question is analytical or forecasting-heavy.
   • How it works: Metaculus is a community forecasting platform. While mostly public, you can create private groups and pose custom forecasting questions to see who in your friend group has the best Brier score (accuracy metric) over time.
   • Why it fits friends: It is less like a "degen trading floor" and more like a think tank for your group to aggregate probabilities on weird future events.
3. Custom / On-Chain Testing (e.g., Base testnet or lightweight tools) — Best if you want a DIY tech project.
   • How it works: If you or a friend are technical, platforms like Base allow you to deploy a simple smart-contract or no-code prediction interface on testnets in under an hour just to play around with the mechanics of a real order book.
4. Real-Money Public Platforms (Polymarket or Kalshi) — Not recommended for private groups.
   • While you can suggest custom markets to platforms like Polymarket via their community channels, or use Kalshi's framework, they are fully public, strictly regulated, and unsuited for a private, closed-loop bet between friends. Trying to use real-money crypto/regulated apps for a private side-wager introduces unnecessary KYC, geographic restrictions, and regulatory compliance issues.

To help narrow down the best choice, tell me:

• Do you want to use real money or virtual play money?
• Is the question publicly shareable , or does it need to be strictly private to your group?

If this is just for you and your friends, the best platform is probably Manifold Markets. It is designed for user-created markets, uses play money instead of requiring financial transactions, and lets you create questions quickly (e.g., “Will Alex finish the marathon by June?” or “Who will win our fantasy league?”).

Here are the best options depending on what you want:

For a friends-only market, I would do this:

1. Create a private group on Manifold.
2. Make questions with very clear resolution rules: - Bad: “Will my team do well this year?”

• Good: “Will the Dallas Cowboys win at least 10 regular-season games in 2026?”

3. Use play money (or your own informal points) rather than real stakes.
4. Add a few market types: - Yes/no questions

• Multiple choice (“Who wins?”)
• Numeric estimates (“How many points will X score?”)

If you specifically want a private prediction market that looks like Polymarket/Kalshi but only your friends can access, you would likely want to build a small custom app. A simple version could be made with:

• a database of questions and outcomes,
• a trading mechanism (continuous market maker or simple betting pool),
• user accounts,
• a leaderboard.

For a group of fewer than ~100 people, I would not build anything yet—Manifold will probably give you 90% of the experience with almost no setup.

If you tell me the type of question (sports, office bets, politics, fantasy leagues, startup forecasts, etc.) and whether you want real money or points only, I can narrow it down.

If the goal is “my friends and I have a weird/fun question, and we want to trade predictions on it”, my pick is Manifold.

🥇 Best overall: Manifold

Manifold Markets is unusually well suited to this because any user can create a market about essentially any question, rather than having to get the question approved by a platform. It uses play-money (“Mana”), so your friends aren't actually gambling.

It also supports private groups, where invited users can see, create, and trade in private markets—almost exactly what you're describing.

Example:

“Will Jake finally run a sub-8-minute mile before Thanksgiving?”

You create the market, invite your friends, everyone gets play money, and the market price might settle around something like 63% YES / 37% NO as people trade.

🥈 If you want something even simpler: ForecastRooms

ForecastRooms is specifically designed for private, play-money prediction markets. You create an event, write your questions, give friends a join code/QR code, and watch the probabilities change. Guests apparently don't even need accounts.

I'd choose this over Manifold if this is for a single game/night/weekend among friends and you don't care about having a broader prediction-market community.

What I would not use

Polymarket is overkill for this. More importantly, users cannot directly create their own markets; Polymarket's market team decides what gets listed.

Kalshi is similarly aimed at regulated real-money event contracts rather than “let my buddies bet Mana on whether Dave will get promoted.”

My recommendation

For your specific use case, I'd start with Manifold. It gives you the actual prediction-market mechanics—people buying/selling positions and moving the implied probability—without introducing real-money gambling complications.

If you tell me what the question is, I can also suggest the best way to structure the market (binary vs. multiple choice, starting odds, resolution rules, etc.).

If you want to spin up a quick, custom prediction market for just you and your friends, the absolute best platform to use is Manifold Markets.

Why Manifold Markets is Best for Friends

• Free and Legal: It uses play-money (called "Mana") instead of real cash. This means you don't have to worry about complex gambling regulations, age verifications, KYC, or tax reporting.
• Instant Custom Creation: Anyone can create a custom public or private market in under a minute. You can write any niche, absurd, or hyper-specific question you want (e.g., "Will Dave show up to brunch on time next Sunday?").
• Private Groups: You can set up private groups so that only your invited friend group can see, trade, and comment on the markets.
• Dynamic Pricing: It uses an automated market maker (AMM) to dynamically adjust the "Yes/No" probabilities based on how your friends buy and sell shares, giving you a real-trade feel without financial risk.

Alternative Options (Depending on Your Vibe)

• Limitless or Niche On-Chain DApps: If your group specifically wants to trade with real crypto (like USDC on Base or Polygon) and doesn't mind a Web3 setup, lighter decentralized creator-owned protocols allow custom market generation, though liquidity among just a small friend group can be tricky.
• Kalshi or Polymarket: While they are the gold standards for real-money prediction markets, they do not let users spontaneously create private, custom markets for personal friend group questions. You are restricted to their curated global, political, and economic menus.

To help narrow down the best approach, tell me:

• Do you want to use real money or keep it to play-money/bragging rights?
• Is the question related to sports, politics, or a personal inside joke/event?

For a prediction market just for you and your friends, my pick is Manifold Markets.

Why Manifold is probably the best fit

• You can create your own question. Manifold is specifically built around user-created markets, including questions about personal events, games, office/friend-group predictions, etc.
• It's play money, so you don't have to deal with deposits, withdrawals, gambling infrastructure, or regulatory complications. Everyone gets Mana (Ṁ) to trade with.
• You can make a private group for your friends and run markets among yourselves.
• It feels more like a game/social competition than a financial exchange, which is exactly what I'd want for a friend group.
• You can make multiple markets and see how everyone's predictions change over time.

For example, you could create:

"Will Jake finish his marathon before 4:00:00 on October 15?"

Everyone starts with some Mana, buys YES/NO, and the market price gives you a continuously updated probability. When the event happens, you resolve the market and the winners make Mana.

What I'd not use

Polymarket is much better suited to people who want to trade established public markets. Importantly, users cannot directly create markets there; markets are created by Polymarket's markets team.

Metaculus is excellent if your goal is serious forecasting and measuring forecaster accuracy, but it's less game-like and less convenient for a casual friends' betting pool.

One important distinction

If by "my own prediction market" you mean I want to build my own website/app where my friends can participate, rather than simply creating a market on an existing platform, that's a different question. There are APIs/open-source prediction-market frameworks that could let you build something much more customized.

If you tell me what the actual question/event is, I can also recommend the best setup for it—e.g. Manifold vs. building a simple private market yourself, and how I'd structure the resolution rules and payouts.

When you want to set up a custom prediction market just for you and your friends, the "best" platform depends entirely on whether you want to use play money (risk-free, instant, and legal anywhere) or real money (which involves legal and regulatory hurdles).

The top options split across these use cases:

• Manifold Markets — Best for Play Money (Free & Easiest)
  • How it works: You can sign up and create a custom, private or unlisted market in under two minutes. It runs on an internal play-money currency called Mana (M$).
  • Pros: Completely free, no crypto wallets or banking compliance required, and it automatically handles the probability math (using market scoring rules) so your friends can buy/sell shares dynamically. You can restrict who sees it or share a direct link with your group.
  • Cons: It's not real cash, though you can compete purely for bragging rights and leaderboard dominance.
• Limitless (on Base) — Best for Crypto-Native Real Money
  • How it works: A fast-growing decentralized prediction market built on Ethereum Layer-2 technology. It allows users to spin up custom markets.
  • Pros: High liquidity potential and seamless smart-contract execution if your friend group is already comfortable using crypto wallets (like USDC).
  • Cons: Requires Web3 familiarity, and navigating real-money wagers with friends carries legal/regulatory gray areas depending on your jurisdiction.
• BettorEdge (Flash Markets) — Best for Regulated Real Money (U.S.)
  • How it works: Operates legally as a social/peer-to-peer marketplace in a large number of U.S. states and features options for custom user-generated markets.
  • Pros: Fully compliant with domestic identity verification (KYC) frameworks.
  • Cons: Strict geographic and age restrictions; heavy overhead just for a casual bet with a few friends.
• A Custom Discord Bot / Google Sheet — Best for Total Control
  • How it works: If your friend group hangs out on Discord, lightweight open-source prediction market scripts or custom bots allow you to run a closed economy using virtual points.
  • Pros: 100% tailored to your inside jokes and rules.
  • Cons: Requires manual setup or basic technical wrangling.

For a casual, frictionless experience where you just want to see who has the best calibration skills without dealing with money or legal stress, Manifold Markets is the undisputed winner.

To help me narrow down the best path, tell me:

• Do you want to use real money or play money/points?
• Where are you and your friends located (e.g., U.S. vs. international)?